More Post-Election Number-Crunching

Following last Monday’s election, two guys named Matt Peters and Ryan Boldt parsed the results from 14 ridings where the outcome was particularly tight and posted their findings on Facebook. In each instance, the Conservative candidate emerged victorious. The combined margin victory was 6,201 votes, and the 14 seats were enough to give Harper his majority.

  Riding:                 Labrador (Newfoundland & Labrador) 

Conservatives             Liberals           Margin of Victory           NDP/Green Combined

4,234                            4,003                       231                               2,235 

                                       Nipissing-Timiskaming (Ontario) 

Conservatives             Liberals           Margin of Victory           NDP/Green Combined

15,507                         15,493                    14                                     11,357

                              Bramalea-Gore-Malton (Ontario) 

Conservatives             NDP                  Margin of Victory           Lib/Green Combined

19,907                          19,369                    538                                    18,149 

                                         Etobicoke Centre (Ontario) 

Conservatives             Liberals           Margin of Victory           NDP/Green Combined

21,661                         21,635                      26                                     9,185 

                         Saskatoon Rosetown Biggar (Saskatchewan) 

Conservatives             NDP                  Margin of Victory           Lib/Green Combined

14,652                      14,114                         538                                      1,323 

                              Elmwood-Transcona (Manitoba) 

Conservatives             NDP                  Margin of Victory           Lib/Green Combined

15,280                      14,996                          284                                     2,678 

                Montmagny-L’islet-Kamouraska-Riveire-du-Loup (Quebec) 

Conservatives             NDP                  Margin of Victory           Lib/Green/Bloc Combined

17,220                      17,110                           110                                       14,861 

                       Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere (Quebec) 

Conservatives             NDP                  Margin of Victory           Lib/Green/Bloc Combined

22,460                      21,683                           777                                      12,183 

                               Don Valley West (Ontario) 

Conservatives             Liberals           Margin of Victory           NDP/Green Combined

22,992                         22,353                      639                                      7,983

                         Mississauga East-Cooksville (Ontario) 

Conservatives             Liberals           Margin of Victory           NDP/Green Combined

18,782                         18,121                       661                                    9,989 

                           Winnipeg South Centre (Manitoba) 

Conservatives             Liberals           Margin of Victory           NDP/Green Combined

15,468                          14,772                       696                                    9,332 

                                         Yukon 

Conservatives             Liberals           Margin of Victory           NDP/Green Combined

5,422                             5,290                       132                                     5,345

                 Desenthe-Missinippi-Churchill River  (Saskatchewan)

Conservatives             Liberals           Margin of Victory           NDP/Green Combined

10,504                          9,715                        789                                     1,706

                                   Palliser (Saskatchewan) 

Conservatives             NDP                  Margin of Victory           Lib/Green Combined

15,850                      15,084                         766                                     2,892

Author: Gregory Beatty

Greg Beatty is a crime-fighting shapeshifter who hatched from a mutagenic egg many decades ago. He likes sunny days, puppies and antique shoes. His favourite colour is not visible to your puny human eyes. He refuses to write a bio for this website and if that means Whitworth writes one for him, so be it.

4 thoughts on “More Post-Election Number-Crunching”

  1. I think the vote on DMC needs to be flipped to Lib/Green vote. lawrence Joseph finished in second place.

    As it relates to SRB and Palliser, it is worth noting that the Tories were blown away in the Saskatoon and Regina portions of the respective ridings by the NDP. The bigger issue, and one which will require greater number crunching when the results become official, is how did each particular city vote? The elections Canada website breaks down the vote by “urban centre” but that isn’t much help as the votes for “Regina” include 50% rural areas.

    I’m willing to wager a bet that taken as a whole, the city of Regina #s look a whole lot better for progressives and not so much for conservatives.

  2. Tuco – That’s why when the boundaries commission starts seeking input on redefining SK’s electoral boundaries into purely rural and purely urban, you and all your friends and family and all of us need to submit some shit in favour of this change. Maybe Saskatoon could get 4 seats, who knows? Anyway, in Regina we’d be kicking Andrew “whatmeworry” Scheer to the curb, or at least to Souris-Moose Mountain and giving Tom “guyslikeme” Lukiwski an early retirement in 2015.

    All those meagre little 3-digit victories for the Cons over the Libs and NDP, they worked for that. They worked hard for that shit. All those awkward Conservative Party misfits spent all their time working on eeking out those victories. I don’t really blame vote splitting between parties. Canadians aren’t two-dimensional. I think only losers blame vote splitting between parties. In Sask, however, vote splitting between Saskatoon and rural, Regina and rural, is real and fucked up. It’s unfair to urban residents and it’s an aberration from the rest of the Canadian electoral system.

    Boundary change is an opportunity to end that. But we must work our shit off, like the awkward Conservative Party misfits work their shit off to preserve the status quo, which works in their favour. We can’t roll our eyes like we’re too cool for school if we want to stop the rural Conservative vote from dominating our cities.

  3. IIRC, there are exactly eight mixed rural-urban seats in all of Canada – and all eight of them are in Saskatchewan. Saskatchewan actually had among the highest popular vote for the NDP (behind Quebec and virtually tied with Newfoundland and British Columbia.

    Part of the problem with the whole vote splitting meme is that, in most ridings, the “strategic” voting advocates are worse than clueless. For example, in Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Montmagny-L’islet-Kamouraska-Riveire-du-Loup, Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere, and Desenthe-Missinippi-Churchill River (which you do have wrong, BTW), the usual suspects were encouraging progressives to abandon the NDP and to support either the Liberals or the Bloc. IOW, the “strategists” actually contributed to the vote splitting.

    The upshot is that “strategic” voting has NEVER worked worth a damn, and is based on a series of unsustainable assumptions about voter behaviour. There are really only two types of people who actually believe in “strategic” voting:
    * those who are completely clueless about politics, and
    * those who are completely clueless about srithmetic.

  4. At least half the Liberals would vote Conservative anyway. Probably more. NDP votes go Liberal but Liberal votes do not go NDP. One of the better insights from election night from Liberal guy David Herle was that Harper’s extra support, the support that put him over the top, was Liberal voters in Ontario voting Harper to deny a Jack Layton minority. The media loves to stoke merger talks, but it’s a dead horse. At best, the Libs would be David Cameron and the NDP would be Nick Clegg.

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