NDPs Surging In Regina

I’ve been watching the polls for Saskatchewan kind of obsessively and have been depressed a lot as a result. The Conservatives have been so far out in front I’ve been assuming that Harper would walk away with a bunch of wins here — despite all the ranting and raving we’ve been doing in the p-dog of late.

Well, I’m pleased to discover that some recent polling is more optimistic (if you’re one of those people who’d like to see Harper lose some support around these parts). Seems the NDP surge that people are talking about in Quebec and BC is happening here too. Have a look at these charts that I’ve lifted off projectdemocracy.ca.

First, here are the projections for my riding, Palliser:

This is a roll-up of an Ekos poll from April 21 and a Nanos poll from April 22. Just a few days ago, Nanos had Ray Boughen slaughtering the NDP’s Noah Evanchuk. Now, the NDP have a slim lead.

Now, here’s how things look in Regina – Qu’appelle:

Again, this is a roll up of an Ekos poll from the 21st and a Nanos poll from the 22nd. And again, a few days ago it really didn’t look like NDP candidate and city councillor Fred Clipsham had a chance. Now, he’s neck-and-neck with Con golden-boy, Andrew Scheer.

As for Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre, have a look. (Again, a rollup from the same Ekos and Nanos polls as above.):

NDP candidate Brian Sklar still has some ground to make up on self-described fucking old and fucking-A Conservative candidate Tom Lukiwski. But based on these numbers, it’s entirely possible that he could come from behind and take the seat.

Meanwhile, over in Wascana, Ralph Goodale is looking pretty solid, as he has done since the start of polling:

So, it looks at least possible now that Regina voters could deliver a big shock to the Conservatives on May 2. Instead of yet another stronghold of Harper support, our town may get painted NDP orange with a splotch of Liberal red. An exciting prospect.

Clearly though it’s more important than ever that progressives get out and vote — and maybe even consider a little of that “strategic voting” the kids are talking about — because all of these races will be very close. Might I also suggest that you purchase for your Conservative-supporting friends a season of Law & Order: SVU on election day. (Because, I don’t know, that just seems like the kind of show a Conservative voter would really dig.) Then maybe they’ll stay inside watching TV instead of heading to the polls. Just a thought.

About Paul Dechene

Paul Dechene is 5'10'' tall and he was born in a place. He's not there now. He's sitting in front of his computer writing his bio for this blog. He has a song stuck in his head. It's "Girl From Ipanema", thanks for asking. You can follow Paul on Twitter at @pauldechene and get live updates during city council meetings and other city events at @PDcityhall.

10 Responses to NDPs Surging In Regina

  1. Talbot Fresh, Jr. April 23, 2011 at 2:37 pm #

    What’s the meddudology used here? Seems weird the Greens would have that many votes consistently, not to mention the phat Liberal vote in Palliser. As much as I’d love to see NDP wins here, I’m not convinced in this polling.

    As for Regina voters, they’re overwhelmingly NDP outside of Wascana–it’s the massive rural swaths that upset things.

  2. Paul Dechene April 23, 2011 at 2:50 pm #

    They’re Ekos and Nanos polls. So I don’t know the exact methodology but both firms have good reputations. I actually became a nerdish Nik Nanos fanboy during the last election. Loved his analysis on CPAC. (He’s moved to CTV now I think.)

    As for the support for the Liberals and Greens, what the polls are showing now isn’t too far off what those parties received in the 2008 election. The Liberals, for instance, took 5,489 votes in Palliser in 2008 (according to projectdemocracy.ca) and the Greens took 1,580 votes.

  3. Mike April 23, 2011 at 3:51 pm #

    Palliser Liberal voters – even if you have a particular hate on for Jack Layton please give the NDP a shot. Noah Evanchuk is a great guy and would make an awesome MP. More so than Ray “Silent” Boughen. Your vote to the NDP could make a world of difference in providing another voice for the people of Saskatchewan.

  4. Moon Daddy April 23, 2011 at 9:28 pm #

    I am eager to cast my Palliser vote for Evanchuk.

  5. Steve H. April 24, 2011 at 2:20 pm #

    And how will this remove Harper from office?

  6. Paul Dechene April 24, 2011 at 3:41 pm #

    Becaaaaaause three prairie seats that were Harper’s not going to Harper this time around (and not being overturned from the Liberals) hurts Harper. It may not help Ignatieff form a minority government but it does, without a doubt, hurt Harper. And the smaller the minority he earns the less credible is the mandate he can claim. In other words, it may not help oust him from power directly (and I never said it would), but without a doubt it will make it harder for him to govern with impunity.

    I thought that was obvious.

  7. Katie April 24, 2011 at 9:02 pm #

    Ooh! Ooh! I answered a poll on Thursday, from the Cons I think, testing out their anti-NDP propaganda. It was quite enlightening…someone’s getting nervous.

  8. anonymous April 25, 2011 at 9:22 am #

    Three votes went to Noah in advance polling in Palliser on Saturday. And let there be many more to follow!

  9. anonymous April 25, 2011 at 1:25 pm #

    Visit the NorthWest part of the city some time. Interesting thing: the middle of the city has lots of orange signs, and the further away from the middle you get the more blue signs you see. In Sherwood Estates there are lots of blue signs. Of course, this is no gauge. I have noticed an interesting signage strategy on the part of the Cons, especially in Wascana: Any yard where they can put a sign, they put two or even three, to make it look like they have more support than they do. Damn those Cons, they do have an edge in the head-games department, just due to the fact that they are more willing to play that sort of game than the other parties.

  10. Matchbook April 25, 2011 at 5:22 pm #

    Fucking right; it’s been too long since we had Dick Proctor. C’mon Palliser Liberals, let’s show the Conservatives we won’t be taken for granted!

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